Saturday, 27 February 2021

2021 NRL Preview and Predictions

The greatest rugby league competition in the world begins next week, with reigning NRL Premiers Melbourne Storm taking on South Sydney Rabbitohs at AAMI Park in a bumper clash on 11th March at 9am UK time, live on Sky Sports. The waiting is almost over, so let's look into my crystal ball to find out what I think of this year's runners and riders...




BRISBANE BRONCOS
Coach: Kevin Walters
2020: 16th
Odds: 40/1
Notable Ins: John Asiata (North Queensland) Dale Copley (Gold Coast) David Mead (Catalans) Isaiah Tass (Canterbury)
Notable Outs: Jack Bird (St George) Darius Boyd (Retired) David Fifita (Gold Coast) Peter Gentle (St George) Andrew McCullough (St George) Jo Ofahnegaue (Wests) Sean O'Sullivan (New Zealand)

Having finished 2020 with the wooden spoon, it could be another tough year for the Broncos. While Dale Copley has a respectable scoring record, and David Mead could provide the odd moment of magic as he did for Catalans, I don't think they have strengthened their side enough to be finishing anywhere other than in the bottom few positions. They actually had a promising start to their warm-up game, leading North Queensland Cowboys 18-6 at half-time but it was a familiar story for the Broncos in the second half as they succumbed and were well beaten 34-16. Jamayne Isaako is a fabulous player and possesses pace, trickery and guide and they will be hoping he can complete more than the ten games he played in last season. Their superb centre Kotoni Staggs has suffered an ACL injury though, and wthis will keep him out of at least the first half of the season. They may just have enough to avoid a repeat of last year's debacle, but it will be close.
Prediction: 15th



CANBERRA RAIDERS
Coach: Ricky Stuart
2020: 5th
Odds: 9/1
Notable Ins: Caleb Aekins (Penrith) Ryan James (Gold Coast) Harry Rushton (Wigan)
Notable Outs: John Bateman (Wigan) Nick Cotric (Canterbury) Michael Oldfield (Parramatta)

Canberra are bursting with quality and in last year's Dally M winner Jack Wighton and former Wigan man George Williams, they possess a lethal half-back partnership that caused opposition defences worlds of trouble last season. Fellow England men Josh Hodgson and Elliott Whitehead are further examples of the ability running through the team. Having been just one game away from the Grand Final last year, they will be looking to make sure they don't miss out on the showpiece event again but will need to tighten up their defence - they conceded thirty points more than any of the top three across the 2020 season. Having lost the brilliant Josh Bateman, they have turned to youth in the recruitment market - Caleb Aekins and Harry Rushton are 23 and 19 respectively. They gave Sydney a great game in their pre-season friendly, going down 26-20 in a high-quality contest that will give the Raiders plenty of belief that they can once again mix it with the big boys when it comes to finals footy at the end of the year.
Prediction: 5th


CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Coach: Trent Barrett
2020: 15th
Odds: 66/1
Notable Ins: Corey Allan (South Sydney) Nick Cotric (Canberra) Kyle Flanagan (Sydney) Jack Hetherington (Penrith) Corey Waddell (Manly)
Notable Outs: Jack Cogger (Huddersfield) Kieran Foran (Manly) Kerrod Holland (Retired) Tim Lafai (Released) Marcelo Montoya (New Zealand) Sauaso Sue (Newcastle) Aiden Tolman (Cronulla) 

Trent Barrett arrives at Canterbury after two years out of the coaching game and has a big task on his hands. Their recruitment looks decent though and they should improve on last years' 15th place. I was surprised to see Souths let Corey Allan go, as he had always looked to have something about him when he played, but this is a good signing for the Bulldogs and adds some scoring power to a team that scored just 282 points and won just three matches last season. The big signing for the Bulldogs is 22-year-old Kyle Flanagan, who had been let go by Sydney. Canterbury suffered with having a slow and laborious half-back partnership but Flanagan should help with that. Since arriving from St Helens, Luke Thompson struggled to get up to the levels that saw him win man of the match in the 2019 Super League Grand Final, but with a full pre-season behind him, should have a better 2021 for the Bulldogs. They looked much better in their warm-up win over Cronulla, coming from behind to secure the victory and playing some decent stuff, which will give them confidence that they can not be in wooden spoon territory this year.
Prediction: 12th



CRONULLA SHARKS
Coach: John Morris
2020: 8th
Odds: 28/1
Notable Ins: Luke Metcalf (Manly) Aiden Tolman (Canterbury)
Notable Outs: Bryson Goodwin (Released) Cameron King (Released) Scott Sorensen (Penrith)

John Morris enters his third year in charge of the Sharks after guiding them to 7th and 8th in his first two campaigns. They had a very poor start to 2020 but were much better after the restart and will be looking to carry that form into 2021. Interestingly, Cronulla won ten matches and lost ten, as well as scoring 480 points and conceding exactly 480 points, showing that they were a team with as many strengths as weaknesses in 2020. Aidan Tolman provides plenty of experience in the forward line but I wonder if they have made a mistake letting Bryson Goodwin go, as their back line looks a bit short of quality. They do, however, have ability in the halves, with 29-year-old Matt Moylan handed the number six shirt ahead of this season. He looked very bright in the first half of their pre-season friendly, but the second-half collapse, allowing Canterbury to come away with the win, exhibits the issues with a very hot-and-cold team. I think they'll just miss out on the playoffs.
Prediction: 10th


GOLD COAST TITANS
Coach: 
Justin Holbrook
2020: 9th
Odds: 14/1
Notable Ins: Herman Ese'ese (Newcastle) Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Melbourne) David Fifita (Brisbane) Jojo Fifita (Rugby Union) Patrick Herbert (New Zealand) Sam McIntyre (Wests)
Notable Outs: Jai Arrow (South Sydney) Shannon Boyd (Retired) Bryce Cartwright (Parramatta) Ryan James (Canberra) Nathan Peats (Released) Tyrone Roberts (Released) Dale Copley (Brisbane) Keegan Hipgrave (Parramatta)

Former St Helens coach Justin Holbrook enters his second year on the Gold Coast with plenty of attention on him and his team after a brilliant maiden campaign with the Titans. Holbrook took them from 15th, 14th and 16th in the previous three years to 9th and just two points off the playoffs in 2020. They have also made some interesting signings - young David Fifita from Brisbane looks to be a hell of a talent at only 20 years old. The big question for them will be whether they can cope with the increased expectation on them this season, but they have the quality of coach to make the playoffs. Ash Taylor and Jamal Fogarty is an exciting half-back pairing and they will not miss former Warrington failure Tyrone Roberts. Their new signings - Fifita in particular - looked good in their warm-up draw with the Warriors last weekend, and they have a great chance of making it to finals footy this year.
Prediction: 7th.


MANLY SEA EAGLES
Coach: Des Hasler
2020: 13th
Odds: 14/1
Notable Ins: Josh Aloiai (Wests) Andrew Davey (Parramatta) Kieran Foran (Canterbury) Jason Saab (St George) Christian Tuipulotu (Sydney)
Notable Outs: Abbas Miski (London) Addin Fonua-Blake (New Zealand) Joel Thompson (St Helens) Corey Waddell (Canterbury)

It seems a long, long time ago since Manly's golden era of reaching four Grand Finals in six years between 2007 and 2013, winning the first and last, and losing in 2008 and 2011, as well as winning the 2009 World Club Challenge. Indeed, they haven't made the final since 2013 and finished in the lowly position of 13th last season, largly thanks to a run of six straight losses between August and September during an injury crisis. Interestingly, Manly conceded the least points of any team in the bottom half last season, which suggests that, if nothing else, their defence was okay. They have added NRL experience and in Kieran Foran, they have a returning half-back who should form an effective partnership with Dale Cherry-Evans. They will, however, have to cope without influential full-back Tom Trbojevic for the start of the season after his freak injury, but still have enough quality to return to the playoffs.
Prediction: 8th


MELBOURNE STORM
Coach: Craig Bellamy
2020: 2nd - Grand Final Champions
Odds: 11/2
Notable Ins: Harry Grant (Wests) George Jennings (Parramatta) Reimis Smith (Canterbury)
Notable Outs: Sandor Earl (Released) Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Gold Coast) Ricky Leutele (Huddersfield) Paul Momirovski (Wests) Cameron Smith (Unconfirmed) Albert Vete (Hull KR) Suliasi Vunivalu (Rugby Union)

2020 NRL Premiers Melbourne Storm come into 2021 in fine shape, led by Craig Bellamy for the nineteenth consecutive season. Whether he makes it twenty or not is another matter - many fans believe this is the last year at the Storm for the 61-year-old, but if it is, he will be all the more determined to retain their crown. The Storm have ben the benchmark for Australian sport in recent times, making the Grand Final in four of the last five years, only missing out in 2019 when they were minor Premiers. Their squad is brimming with quality of the international and representative stage, with the likes of Josh Addo-Carr and Ryan Papenhuyzen two of the most exciting players around. The big question for them is how they will cope with the departure of the legendary hooker Cameron Smith, who leaves after 433 games for the Storm. Harry Grant looks a real talent though as he looks to fill Smith's shoes - though is likely to miss the start of the season with a MCL injury sustained in the warm-up win over Newcastle. As good as Grant may be, though - he won rookie of the year in 2020 - Smith is irreplaceable and the Storm will really miss his experience and perpetual brilliance. I think it could be a slow start for them, facing South, Parramatta and Penrith in their first three games, as well as adjusting to life without Cameron Smith (and temporarily without Grant too), but by the end of the year they'll be in a much stronger place than at the start and I wouldn't back against them making another Grand Final.
Prediction: 3rd



NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Coach: Adam O'Brien
2020: 7th
Odds: 20/1
Notable Ins: Tyson Frizell (St George) Bailey Hodgson (Castleford) Jack Johns (South Sydney) Jacob Kiraz (North Queensland) Sauaso Sue (Canterbury) Dom Young (Huddersfield)
Notable Outs: Hernan Ese'ese (Gold Coast) Beau Fermor (Gold Coast) Tim Glasby (Retirement) Danny Levi (Manly) Mason Lino (Wakefield) Sione Mata'utia (St Helens) Andrew McCullough (Brisbane) Tautau Moga (South Sydney) Tyronne Roberts-Davis (Wests)

Newcastle were a very patchy side last season and struggled to put a run of wins together. The glass-half-full man would say that they never went on a significant run of losses either, which is true, and that their up-and-down form was still enough to earn them a spot in finals footy (where they were comfortably beaten by Souths in the first round). However, I'm not so sure they'll be as successful this time around, as their recruitment, bar the interesting capture of Tyson Frizell, looks to be more geared towards the future than the present. I'm fascinated to see how Super League youngsters Dom Young and Bailey Hodgson get on - they have barely played in England but are already in contention for spots in the Newcastle team. Young in particular looks to be a real talent and scored in the Knight's warm-up loss to the Storm last weekend and given England's issues with centres, could be an option for Shaun Wane when the World Cup comes around at the back end of this year. In what is likely to be a more coherent and higher-quality competition this year, Newcastle will miss out on a place in finals footy.
Prediction: 9th



NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Coach: Nathan Brown
2020: 10th
Odds: 33/1
Notable Ins: Bailey Sironen (South Sydney) Ben Murdoch-Masila (Warrington) Kane Evans (Parramatta) Euan Aitken (St George) Addin Fonua-Blake (Manly) Sean O'Sullivan (Brisbane) Marcelo Montoya (Canterbury)
Notable Outs: Adam Blair (Retirement) Gerard Beale (Retirement) Blake Green (Newcastle) Patrick Herbert (Gold Coast) Isaiah Papali'i (Parramatta) Nathaniel Roache (Parramatta) Taane Milne (South Sydney) Lachlan Burr (North Queensland)

The Warriors rightly attracted plenty of praise for their selfless efforts in keeping the 2020 NRL season going. They will probably have to endure much of the same this season, which will be a challenge, but their recruitment in the off-season looks really good. A familiar face to Warrington fans in Ben Murdoch-Masila joins the ranks and if he is played in the second row, could be destructive alongside fellow new signing Bailey Sironen. Also in the forward pack, Addin Fonua-Blake will bring some much-needed size. Euan Aitken is an experienced, yet only 25 years old, addition to the centre and should add some scoring power to a side that scored fewer points than anyone bar the bottom two last season. However, this is Nathan Brown's first season in charge of the Warriors and the former St Helens and Huddersfield coach will be overseeing a very transitional year. There were some good signs for the Warriors in their friendly with Gold Coast, which ended a 12-12 draw, but they will be praying that hooker Wayde Egan's injury to his elbow sustained in the match isn't too serious.
Prediction: 11th



NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Coach: Todd Payten
2020: 14th
Odds: 20/1
Notable Ins: Javid Bowen (Northern Pride) Kane Bradley (Wests) Lachlan Burr (New Zealand)
Notable Outs: John Asiata (Brisbane) Tom Opacic (Parramatta)

Todd Payten did an impressive job as interim coach of New Zealand in the second half of last season and now takes over as permanent coach in Townsville. The Cowboys finished 14th last season after a tough year, winning just five matches all season. They possess much the same side with very little movement, in or out, in the transfer market. Jason Taumalolo has been at the club since 2010 and is well into veteran territory, despite only being 27. Keeping the loose forward fit and in form is crucial to the Cowboys' very slim hopes of finals footy. In reality, they are more likely to be competing for the wooden spoon, but I think the appointment of Payten, who won six of his fourteen games in charge of the Warriors, should be enough to be clear of the dreaded spoon. They showed that they have quality in their side with an excellent second half performance in their 34-16 win over Brisbane in their warm-up friendly. A big decision for the Cowboys will be who to start at full-back, with Val Holmes, Scott Drinkwater and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow fighting it out for the number one shirt.
Prediction: 13th



PARRAMATTA EELS
Coach: Brad Arthur
2020: 3rd
Odds: 12/1
Notable Ins: Tom Opacic (North Queensland) Isaiah Papali'i (New Zealand) Joey Lussick (Salford) Michael Oldfield (Canberra) Keegan Hipgrave (Gold Coast) Nathaniel Roache (New Zealand) Bryce Cartwright (Gold Coast)
Notable Outs: Stefano Utoikamanu (Wests) Kane Evans (New Zealand) David Gower (Retired) Peni Terepo (Retired) Jai Field (Wigan) Andrew Davey (Manly) Jaeman Salmon (Penrith) Brad Takairangi (Hull KR) George Jennings (Melbourne) Daniel Alvaro (St George)

For a period of time, it looked like 2020 was going to be the year that Parramatta finally ended their long wait for an NRL Premiership. Having gone since 1986 without one, the Eels occupied top spot at the halfway point of last season after a superb start. They ended up 3rd and lost in the finals series to Souths, despite scoring 24 points. They have let a lot of squad players go but have virtually the same starting thirteen as last year, which could be a good thing - they have the experience and know how to play together - or a bad thing, they have little to no rotation options. Brad Arthur's team played some lovely stuff in the first half of last season though and in Clint Gutherson, have one of the most exciting players in the competition and I'm really interested to see how ex-Salford hooker Joey Lussick gets on. Unfortunately, I think their long wait will go on - they have more than enough quality to comfortably make finals footy but I don't think they've strengthened enough to build on last year.
Prediction: 6th



PENRITH PANTHERS
Coach: Ivan Cleary
2020: 1st - Minor Premiers
Odds: 5/1
Notable Ins: Robert Jennings (Wests) Matt Eisenhuth (Wests) Jaeman Salmon (Parramatta) Scott Sorensen (Cronulla) Paul Momirovski (Wests)
Notable Outs: Caleb Aekins (Canberra) Jack Hetherington (Canterbury) James Tamou (Wests) Zane Tetevano (Leeds) Josh Mansour (South Sydney) Daine Laurie (Wests) Dean Whare (Catalans)

It's eighteen years this year since Penrith were last crowned NRL champions but they couldn't have come much closer to ending that wait than they did in 2020. The Panthers produced a near-perfect season, losing just one game all year as they secured top spot and with it, the Minor Premiership. Ivan Cleary's team were simply sensational at times, winning fifteen games in a row and looking unstoppable as finals footy came around, defeating Sydney and Souths before narrowly losing out to Melbourne in the Grand Final. The likes of half-back Nathan Cleary and loose forward Isaah Yeo had brilliant seasons and will be key for them again. They have managed to keep hold of pretty much all of the roster that went so close, though I don't think any of their recruitment particularly strengthens them. They looked very strong defensively in their pre-season win against Parramatta, which was their undoing in the big games last season, so if they can be more solid, while maintaining their irresistible attack, they will have a chance. The disappointment of last year will have badly hurt them though and I just don't think they'll have the momentum with them to be able to finish top again.
Prediction: 4th



SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Coach: Wayne Bennett
2020: 6th - Runners-Up
Odds: 5/1
Notable Ins: Jai Arrow (Gold Coast) Taane Milne (New Zealand) Jacob Host (St George) Tautau Moga (Newcastle) Josh Mansour (Penrith) Benji Marshall (Wests)
Notable Outs: Ethan Lowe (Retired) James Roberts (Wests) Jack Johns (Newcastle) Bayley Sironen (Newcastle) Joseph Suaalii (Sydney) Corey Allan (Canterbury

The side who have won twenty-one NRL Premierships had an iffy 2020, starting pretty poorly before putting together a consistent run at the end of the season. They then defeated Newcastle and Parramatta in the playoffs before narrowly falling to Penrith in the semi-finals. Still, there is plenty of cause for optimism for Souths in 2021. In Jai Arrow, they have signed a talented loose forward and Josh Mansour is a winger with a good scoring rate for the Panthers. They are brimming with quality and experience - Damien Cook at hooker, Dane Gagai at centre and Tom Burgess at prop are just a few examples of this. They have a hugely exciting half-back pairing of Cody Walker and Adam Reynolds, who worked so well together in a number of big games last season. For me though, the main reason for Bunnies fans to be positive about the new season is the return of Latrell Mitchell, one of the competition's best players, from the injury that kept him out of the last two months of 2020. He was unplayable in the first half of their Charity Shield victory over St George at the weekend, getting a try and three assists, working superbly with Walker in the halves. The full-back is good enough to have an enormous impact on Souths and I expect them to go very close to being crowned Minor - and maybe Major - Premiers this year.
Prediction: 2nd



ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Coach: Anthony Griffin
2020: 12th
Odds: 40/1
Notable Ins: Poasa Faamausili (Sydney) Andrew McCullough (Brisbane) Jack Bird (Brisbane) Daniel Alvaro (Parramatta)
Notable Outs: Tyson Frizzell (Newcastle) Euan Aitken (New Zealand) Jacob Host (South Sydney) Korbin Sims (Hull KR) Jason Saab (Manly)

It's been a really poor few years for St George, who have finished 15th and 12th in the last two seasons without so much as looking like they might threaten a spot in finals footy. It's not like their squad is awful - former Leeds man Trent Merrin is a solid player and Zac Lomax looks like a brilliant young talent. They also have 25-year-old full-back Matt Dufty, who has scored a remarkable 34 tries in 67 appearances for the club. I'm not sure their half-back partnership is good enough though, Corey Norman and Ben Hunt are not as good as Gareth Widdop was for the Dragons. They haven't added enough quality to be troubling the playoffs and they'll be deeply concerned by how easily Souths brushed them aside in the Charity Shield, conceding 34 points in the first half. They looked all at sea defensively and struggled to get any foothold. It should be noted though, that they did have some decent moments in attack when they finally got their hands on the ball. It is these moments that they will need plenty of to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon, which is a genuine possibility for the Dragons.
Prediction: 14th



SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Coach: Trent Robinson
2020: 4th
Odds: 11/2
Notable Ins: Adam Keighran (New Zealand) Joseph Suaalii (South Sydney)
Notable Outs: Mitch Aubusson (Retired) Kyle Flanagan (Canterbury) Poasa Faamausili (St George) Christian Tuipulotu (Manly) Ryan Hall (Hull KR)

The 2018 and 2019 NRL Premiers and the 2020 World Champions weren't quite at the same level last season, finishing 4th and failing to make the Grand Final after losing to Melbourne in the semi-finals. There is no shortage of quality in the Roosters' ranks though - Luke Keary is capable of guiding them around the field from the halves - though is in a race against time to make it back in time for the start of the season - and supplying for the likes of Joseph Manu and Daniel Tupou, who are both deadly tryscorers. And of course, in James Tedesco at full-back, they possess the best player in the world. Tedesco missed a number of games last season but if they can get a full campaign out of him, they will win more games than they lose. They will also have their enforcer Victor Radley back after an ACL injury saw him miss most of last season. Much of their season will be defined by how well they manage in the halves - after the departure of Kyle Flanagan to Canterbury, Keary will be partnered by one of Lachie Lam, Sam Walker and Ronald Volkman. Walker and Volkman in particular have looked very good in pre-season. Angus Crichton also played very well in the pre-season win against Canberra. With plenty of change at their rivals Melbourne, I expect the Easts to finish top and be Minor Premiers, though I'm not sure they'll get it togther when finals footy comes around.
Prediction: 1st - Minor Premiers


WESTS TIGERS
Coach: Michael Maguire
2020: 11th
Odds: 25/1
Notable Ins: Stefano Utoikamanu (Parramatta) Daine Laurie (Penrith) James Tamou (Penrith) James Roberts (South Sydney) Joe Ofahengaue (Brisbane) Tukimihia Simpkins (North Queensland)
Notable Outs: Chris Lawrence (Retired) Robert Jennings (Penrith) Matt Eisenhuth (Penrith) Paul Momirovski (Penrith) Sam McIntyre (Gold Coast) Josh Aloiai (Manly) Josh Reynolds (Hull) Elijah Taylor (Salford) Kane Bradley (North Queensland) Benji Marshall (South Sydney)

2020 was a poor season for Wests, who finished six points off the playoffs and won just seven games all season. It's hard to feel excited about a team that were already pretty average and now have let a high quantity of players go, without any real quality replacements arriving. The Tigers did okay with the assistance of loan signing Harry Grant last season, but with him now returning to parent club Melbourne, it's hard to see them having the ruck speed and accuracy that the young hooker brought - form that helped him win NRL rookie of the year. The 2005 Champions won't be anywhere near finals footy this year, and in fact I think they will be receiving the dreaded wooden spoon for the first time in the club's history. 
Prediction: 16th


My NRL Table Prediction

1) Sydney Roosters
2) South Sydney Rabbitohs
3) Melbourne Storm
4) Penrith Panthers
5) Canberra Raiders
6) Parramatta Eels
7) Gold Coast Titans
8) Manly Sea Eagles
------------------------------------
9) Newcastle Knights
10) Cronulla Sharks
11) New Zealand Warriors
12) Canterbury Bulldogs
13) North Queensland Cowboys
14) St George Illawarra Dragons
15) Brisbane Broncos
16) Wests Tigers


Finals Series

Week One
Qualifying Final: Sydney to beat Penrith
Qualifying Final: Souths to beat Melbourne
Elimination Final: Canberra to beat Manly
Elimination Final: Gold Coast to beat Parramatta

Week Two
Semi-Final: Canberra to beat Penrith
Semi-Final: Melbourne to beat Gold Coast

Week Three
Preliminary Final: Melbourne to beat Sydney
Preliminary Final: Souths to beat Canberra

Grand Final
Souths to beat Melbourne


Awards
Dally M Player of the Year:
Latrell Mitchell (Souths)

Dally M Team of the Year:
FB:
Latrell Mitchell (Souths)
W: Josh Addo-Carr (Melbourne)
C: Joseph Manu (Sydney)
C: Jarrod Croker (Canberra)
W: Alex Johnston (Souths)
SO: Cameron Munster (Melbourne)
SH: Luke Keary (Sydney)
P: Josh Papalii (Canberra)
HK: Harry Grant (Melbourne)
P: Christian Welch (Melbourne)
SR: Angus Crichton (Sydney)
SR: Victor Radley (Sydney)
LF: Jason Taumololo (North Queensland)


@ALooseWire

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